EV 計算器：Call、Fold 還是 Raise
2026年6月2日
EV_call = (W% × $W) − (L% × $L)。Fold = $0 baseline。Compare call、fold、含 fold equity 的 raise。四例驗算與 post-session checklist。
- expected value
- EV calculator
- pot odds
- fold equity
- decision optimization
- poker math
- call or fold
每個 poker decision 都有 expected value。Fold EV = $0——baseline。Call 與 Raise 各有 dollar EV；選數字最大的 action。
核心 EV 公式
EV = (W% × $W) − (L% × $L)
Fold EV = $0。
Call EV——Pot Odds 預檢
Required equity = Call ÷ (Pot + Call)
W%=40%，pot $80 facing $40：EV = +$24
W%=25% breakeven：EV = $0
Raise EV
EV_raise = (F × P) + (1 − F) × (W% × $W − $L_raise)
四例 Spot
Spot 1——Thin +EV Call
AQ call SB shove，equity 47%，win $13，risk $11：EV = +$0.28
Spot 2——Call Fails
Equity 40%：EV = −$1.40 → Fold beats call
Spot 3——Bluff with Fold Equity
Pot $187，bet $125，fold 45%：EV = +$15.40
Fold 30%：EV = −$31.40
Spot 4——Semi-Bluff Raise
Pot $100，raise to $160（risk $100），F=40%，W%=35%，$W=$320：
EV_raise = +$47.20 vs EV_call +$17
三 Action 對比
Rule： max(EV_fold, EV_call, EV_raise)
Post-Session Checklist
- 寫 pot、bet、hand、board
- Assign villain range
- Equity calculator → W%
- EV_call vs $0
- 若 raise：估 F，EV_raise
- Sensitivity：W% ±5%，F ±10%
速查
EV_call = (W% × $W) − (L% × $L)
EV_fold = $0
EV_raise = (F × P) + (1−F) × (W% × $W − $L)
Pick: max(EV_call, EV_fold, EV_raise)
Breakeven call: W% = Call / (Pot + Call)
Log spots where table action 與 math 不一致——即 study queue。